THE INDIAN SCENE

 

PROF. M. VENKATARANGAIYA

 

I

 

The outstanding event in January–March (1972) quarter was the holding of general elections to the Vidhan Sabhas of sixteen States and two Union Territories. This resulted in the Congress party once more gaining that dominant position which it held until 1967. The elections proved that the reverses which it suffered in 1967 were only temporary and that the electorate was convinced that in the best interests of the country the Congress should continue to rule over both the Centre and the states. An indication of this attitude was given in the elections to Lok Sabha in 1971 and it was Confirmed by the elections to State Assemblies in 1972. One-party domination has come to stay.

 

It will not be inappropriate in this connection to refer to a few statistics to bring out the magnitude of the victory won by the Congress and the debacle suffered by other parties. The table below gives the number and percentage of seats won by the contending parties, and the percentage of votes polled by them.

 

No. of seats                             Percentage of              Percentage of

won                                         seats won                    votes polled

 

Congress (R)                1881                                        71.36                           44.67

Congress (0)                   86                                           3.26                             4.61

Jan Sangh                      100                                           3.34                             7.87

Swatantra                        16                                            0.61                            1.11

Socialist                           57                                            2.61                            2.57

C. P. I.                          109                                            4.14                            3.58

C. P. M.                          34                                            1.29                            4.38

Other Parties                  134                                           5.08                           11.00

Independents                  219                                            8.31                          20.21

Total                            2636                                        100.00                         100.00

 

The magnitude of the victory of the Congress is shown by the fact that while it won 71.36 per cent of the seats, all other parties and independents put together won only 28.64 per cent of the seats. Their debacle may be said to have been complete. In eleven of the Assemblies the Congress won a two-thirds majority. In Madhya Pradesh it has a three-fourths majority. All this has enabled it to form governments without the need to enter into coalitions with other parties.

 

It is worthwhile noting in this context that the parties of the Right as well as those of the Left suffered a crushing defeat. The Swatantra has been repudiated by the states like Gujarat and Rajasthan which were hitherto considered to be its strongholds. In Gujarat where it secured in 1967 elections 68 seats and formed the main Opposition to the ruling party, it did not win even a single seat in 1972. In Rajasthan it had 48 seats in 1967 and now it has only 11. Similar is the case with Jan Sangh, another of the Rightist parties. The Hindi-speaking states of U.P., Bihar, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have always been its strongholds. There was no election in U. P. but in that held in 1969 the Sangh won only 49 seats while it had 98 in the elections of 1967. The present elections proved that it has lost its popularity not only in U. P. but also in the three other states. While it won 78 seats in Madhya Pradesh in 1967 it secured only 48 in 1972. In Bihar its strength fell from 34 in 1969 to 25 in 1972; and in Rajasthan from 22 in 1967 to 8 in 1972.

 

The Congress (0) is also considered to be a party of the Right. Mysore and Gujarat, the states to which its veteran leaders Nijalingappa and Morarji Desai belonged, were staunch supporters of the party at the time of the Congress split in 1969. But it became clear even at the time of the elections to Lok Sabha in 1971 that this support was being lost. In the elections of 1972 the loss became clearer. It could secure only 16 seats in Gujarat as against. 139 got by Congress (R) and in Mysore it secured only 24 as against 165 won by Congress (R).

 

What is true of the Rightists is equally true of the Leftists. The Socialists won only 57 in 1972 as against 183 in 1967 and even in Bihar where it had a strength of 86 in 1967 it now won only 33. The strength of the C. P. I. has increased from 80 in 1967 to 108 in 1972 but this was entirely due to its alliance with the Congress. For all practical purposes it has to-day become a wing of the Congress. It has ceased to be a revolutionary party. Its international affiliations are with Soviet Russia and as long as Soviet Russia supports the Congress party, the C. P. I. has to do the same. It cannot be really counted among the leftist parties. The only other party that falls into this category is C. P. M. While in 1967 it secured 43 and 113, in 1971 in West Bengal, its main stronghold, it won only 14 in 1972. The Leftists like the Rightists are nowhere in the picture. The Left Centre Congress party occupies a dominant position.

 

Though from the point of view of seats won, the Congress occupies a commanding position. The same is not true from the point of view of the percentage of votes cast in its favour. Only 44.67 of the voters who voted in the ejections of 1972 supported the party. This shows that it has the support of only a minority of the active and politically conscious electorate–that part of the electorate which takes the trouble to participate in elections. A majority of them, 55.33 per cent, are against the Congress and therefore against the policies and programmes of the party. In our system of elections to the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabhas (and not to the Rajya Sabha or the Legislative Councils in States) we borrowed the British system of single-member constituencies in which a candidate who gets the largest number of votes cast and not a majority of votes cast is declared to be the winner. It is because of this that there is no correspondence between the percentage of votes cast for a party in the state or country as a whole and the number of seats it wins. The only remedy for this is the proportional system of representation adopted in almost all democracies on the continent of Europe. But it has its own shortcomings, even though it secures a better representation to all the political parties and prevents one-party dominance. This is not the place to examine the merits and demerits of the proportional system of representation. What is necessary to notice is that both Rightists and Leftists continue even to-day to command the support of appreciable sections of the people, though the support is ineffective from the point of view of power. For instance, compared with its voting strength in 1967, the Jan Sangh has improved its popular support by 2 per cent in Bihar, while in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan it retained its 1967 position. Despite its losses of seats the C. P. M. has retained 28 per cent of electoral support in West Bengal, its stronghold. In Punjab the Akali Dal polled 28 per cent which is only one per cent less than what it polled in the mid-term election of 1971.

 

II

 

We have now to account for the extraordinary victory secured by the Congress. There were both positive and negative factors which contributed to it. Among the positive ones priority of place should be given to the charismatic leadership of Srimathi Indira Gandhi, the Prime Minister. It is no exaggeration to say that the victory of the Congress is mostly due to her and that people voted for the Congress because they considered it to be a vote for her. In 1967 there were serious doubts about her capacity for leadership. By the time of the mid-term elections to Lok Sabha in 1971 these doubts were completely removed. The unprecedented courage she showed in putting out of power the other leaders who competed with her and the skill which she displayed in bringing victory to the candidate of her choice for the Presidentship of India attracted to her the admiration of large sections of the people. The boldness with which she nationalised the banks and put an end to the privileges of the princely order convinced many that she was determined on putting into effect the Socialist policies for which the Congress stood in theory from the days of its Avadi session. The conviction grew that Congress was no longer a party of status quo but a party which was bent on bringing about all the needed social changes. It was in this way that she built up her leadership from 1967 and by 1971 she was the only leader who commanded a national stature. All others were sectional or group leaders. In her capacity for taking decisions she showed that she was even superior to her father who was also a charismatic leader of a rare type.

 

The second positive factor was the victory that she brought to the country in the war with Pakistan. People naturally took pride in this and some of them were even inclined to conclude that it was the first great victory achieved by India in warding off the attacks of the fanatical invaders from the North-West which began a thousand years ago. They took equal pride in the war having brought about the liberation of Bangla Desh with a population of seventy-five millions. No other nation in the contemporary world has such an accomplishment to its credit. It was also a matter of pride to the people that the Prime Minister could defy the Americans–a world power–when they brought their seventh fleet equipped with nuclear weapons into the Bay of Bengal and threatened to intervene on the side of Pakistan in the Indo-Pakistan war. President Nixon could have bombed the Indian coastal waters then as he later on bombed North Vietnam coasts. But the Prime Minister proceeded with her work in a calm and unruffled manner until victory was won. She also endeared herself to the people by the way she solved the problem of the ten million refugees who fled to India to escape from the savagery of Pakistani armed forces in Bangla Desh. As a true mother she fed, clothed and sheltered them and sent them back to their homes when their country became free. The elections to the State Assemblies were held when memories of what the Prime Minister did in all these respects were fresh in the minds of the people and it is no wonder that they voted for her party in large numbers. It would have been an act of betrayal and sheer ingratitude if they had voted otherwise.

 

A third factor which attracted the people to her party was the election manifesto which promised that if returned to power the Congress would take all measures necessary to eradicate poverty, to solve the problem of unemployment and to remove disparities between the rich and the poor. Of course, similar manifestos were issued in the past and little came out of them, but in 1972 the people, as has already been pointed out, believed that under the dynamic and radical leadership of the Prime Minister the Congress would not be content with mere verbal socialism but would take necessary action for the purpose. Other parties also issued manifestos which were more radical in content but from the experience of those parties while in power between 1967 and 1972 the electorate concluded that they would do little to put their promises into practice.

 

Finally, the measures which the Prime Minister took before the elections to form ad hoc committees in different states to conduct the election work of the Congress, to replace Chief Ministers, who were in a position to defy her because of their local standing and influence, by Chief Ministers of her own choice, to reconstitute the Councils of Ministers with representatives of Harijans, Tribals and other weaker sections of society brought considerable dividends to the party in the elections. Some of the Chief Ministers belonged to the minority communities who had long been suppressed. This, along with the large representation given to the weaker sections in the councils, convinced these sections that if the Congress won the elections power would be more equitably distributed among the different communities and that there would be an end to the dominant position which landlord communities like Reddys and Kammas in Andhra and Vokkaligars and Lingayats in Mysore had all along enjoyed. This conviction got further strengthened when in selecting candidates for election the Prime Minister and the Congress Parliamentary Committee under her direction chose large numbers from the weaker sections including women. Next to her charismatic leadership it is this strategy which she adopted to break the monopoly of power wielded in the post-independence period by the land-owning castes that worked substantially in favour of the Congress. There has been the criticism that all this smacks of dictatorship. But one should not forget that elections are a kind of war, though non-violent, for winning power and that victory in such a war, as in all wars, depends on concentration of authority in a single commander-in-chief.

 

Both the Prime Minister and the Congress were also criticised for placing before the electorate national issues like Indo-Pakistan war, Socialism and so on, instead of local issues, which alone were relevant during elections to State Assemblies. There is some justification for this kind of criticism but we should remember that the electorate is not as yet in a position to distinguish between national and local issues and that moreover the distinction between them is not clear cut–socialism, removal of inequalities, ceiling on land holdings and urban property and relief of unemployment are as much local as national issues.

 

Among the negative factors which contributed to the victory of the Congress was the people’s loss of confidence in Opposition parties. These parties were voted to power in several states in 1967 but the coalition ministries they formed did not prove to be stable. Several states consequently came under President’s rule which meant the elimination of democracy in the state so long as such rule continued. There was also nothing to show that these parties learnt a lesson from their failings in 1967-72 and that they were prepared to work together on the basis of an agreed common programme. Even the attempt at a common front which they organised to fight Lok Sabha elections in 1971 was not repeated during the Assembly elections. In this situation the electorate seems to have felt that no purpose would be served by voting for opposition parties in large numbers.

 

Apart from this factor of a general character there were also special reasons why Jan Sangh, for instance, lost support in Hindi-speaking areas or C. P. M. in Bengal. Hindu communalism which was the main plank of Jan Sangh lost much of its force owing to developments in Bangla Desh. In West Bengal the C. P. M. became completely isolated because of the encouragement which it gave to violence while in power in that state and also because of the indifference which it showed to Bangla Desh issue and the refugee problem–issues which had a wide popular appeal. Many of its traditional supporters, it is said, have lost faith in elections. This may account for its debacle to some extent. In the case of Muslims also it is said that communalism has not the same hold over them now as it had in 1967. The fact that Congress won in many constituencies in Assam and elsewhere, where Muslims constituted a majority of voters, shows that once again, as during the years 1950-1962, they have become pro-Congress and believe that their interests, as well as the interests of secularism, are closely bound up with the continuance of Congress in power.

 

III

 

The consequences of the thumping victory obtained by the Congress are partly good and partly harmful. Among the good consequences is the stability of State Government which it ensures during the next four to five years. All cabinets will be one-party Congress ones. With the huge strength that the party commands in every Assembly there is no danger of defectors trying to meddle with cabinets. Stable cabinets will be in a position to concentrate attention on matters of policy. Decision-making will become easier in homogeneous than in coalition cabinets.

 

With Opposition parties considerably weakened Congress Governments will be in a position to fulfil their election promises. They will have the majorities needed for the purpose. For any failure to implement their programmes they will have to blame themselves and not other parties.

 

There will be greater harmony between the Centre and the States as the same party rules in both of them. When non-Congress Governments were in power in some of the states after the fourth general election tensions between the Centre and the States became inevitable and some State Governments as in Kerala and West Bengal systematically adopted a policy of confrontation towards the Centre. There will be no occasion for such a situation in the following four to five years. The Centre will be in a position to get the acceptance of states for any policy it embarks upon in the interests of the nation. If it is really serious about its socialistic programmes it will meet with no obstruction from states.

 

There is, however, a dark side to this rosy picture. The danger of one-party domination becoming a veiled dictatorship is clear. There is no escape from this when opposition parties are weak and feel frustrated. With monolithicism overtaking the Congress–as is the case now–there will be little scope for internal criticism. Warnings have already been issued by the High Command against such criticism.

 

It has been the considered view of the makers of our Constitution that in this land of extreme diversity a federal system of government is most appropriate. The Constitution therefore provided for state autonomy by conferring on State Governments exclusive power on subjects like Law and Order, Agriculture, Co-operation, Industries, Education and so on. When the same highly centralised party like the Congress rules over both the Centre and the states the autonomy of the states practically disappears and State Governments and legislatures become mere rubber-stamps for implementing the policies dictated to them by the Centre. They cease to take any responsibility themselves. Very few states, for example, are anxious to shape ceiling legislation in accordance with local needs. They prefer to delegate the power to the Central Government. If this procedure continues the advantages we expect from a federal set-up will disappear. When Chief Ministers, other ministers, and members of legislatures are nominated by the Prime Minister as is the case now, there is no question of state autonomy being maintained.

 

The huge majorities which the Congress secured in Lok Sabha and in state legislatures has also resulted in the members of those bodies losing all interest in their work. On many occasions there is no quorum for carrying on business. The question hour has become dull. Weak Opposition parties are unable to criticise governmental policies in an effective manner. Legislatures have ceased to be forums for discussing public issues. The majority of legislators have become functionless. It is no wonder that the question is raised in certain quarters whether any useful purpose is served by legislatures with their present-day strength and whether there is not a case for reducing it.

 

It is the lesson drawn from the working of democracy in most countries of the world that a strong Opposition is necessary for the purpose. It is unfortunate that such an Opposition has not so far come into existence in our country. With Congress, the ruling party, having become extremely radical there is need for a real Conservative Party which is for orderly and slow change, which is opposed to totalitarian policies and which safeguards minimum property rights and the values of individual freedom. It is time that the Opposition parties in the country which believe in the right kind of conservatism come together and build a real Conservative Party. No one need be ashamed of being a conservative. Let no one forget that Edmund Burke, one of the greatest of political thinkers, is the father of modern conservatism.

 

26-5-’72

 

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