FOR three years the great powers have been engaged
in a search for an agreed settlement of the various political and economic
issues that have arisen in consequence of the second world war. Institutions,
like the Foreign Ministers’ conference, the United Nations Organization and the
Security Council were created for the purpose of facilitating such a
settlement. Unfortunately however no agreed solution has been found for any of
the major issues. The result is that settlements arrived at have been of a
one-sided character, each party being naturally dissatisfied with what the
other party has done and determined on undoing it. There is tension everywhere.
Orderly and peaceful life has become impossible. Conditions continue to be
abnormal throughout the world.
There is an underlying cause for this. The
revolutions which began in America and Europe in the last quarter of the
eighteenth century, and which have laid the foundations for a new era in the
progress of humanity, gave birth to the idea of the rights of man as man as
distinguished from his rights as a clergyman, a member of the feudal
aristocracy, or of the ruling section. Something was done during the nineteenth
century to give effect to this new idea but reactionary forces of a counter
revolutionary character asserted themselves in course of time, and in the place
of the elementary and fundamental rights of man there came into vogue rights of
a sectional character designated in a variety of ways like national rights, the
rights of the propertied classes, and of the working classes. The elements
which differentiate one man from another were unduly emphasised and the
essential similarity between man and man arising out of the common humanity
found in all was ignored. The real fight today is a fight between the
eighteenth century revolution and the counter revolution of the subsequent
times. No agreed settlement is possible unless the former wins victory in this
fight. But in the actual world as we see around us this aspect has been
ignored, and the fight as it is carried on now by the so-called great
powers–Soviet Russia, the United States, Britain, France etc.,–and their
satellites in Europe,–the Colonial powers like Holland and Belgium–is a fight
between one counter revolutionary force and another. Soviet Russia regards only
these belonging to the Proletariat as men and fights for their rights (although
when we go deeper we find it fighting for the rights of the Russian Nation and
the Russian Fatherland). The United States stands for national rights and the
rights of the propertied classes. Her ally Britain and the lesser European
powers stand for the rights of the white men as against the rights of the
coloured peoples in their colonies. It is all this that has made impossible an
agreed solution of the major issues of the day.
Attention has been drawn to one aspect of this
disagreement among the great powers by M. Tyrgve Lie, the Secretary General of
the United Nations in the third report to the General Assembly published on
August 7. He observed: “The conflict between the East and West has been the
cause, direct or indirect, of many set-backs and disappointments in the work of
the United Nations during the past year,” and he also issued a warning in the
following words: “It would be a great mistake to believe that most of the world
has any intention of accepting any single economic system whether based on the
Communist doctrine of the classless society or the most extreme American
capitalist version of a free enterprise system. In a world where so many forces
are at work and so many different civilisations and cultural traditions are
stirring and intermingling, domination by any single ideology, whether it be
religious, or political, or economic, is unthinkable and impossible.” It is
only when this truth is realised, and Soviet Russia gives up the fanaticism
with which she is determined on extending the Communist ideology and the United
States also abandons her capitalist ideology, that agreed solutions will become
possible. They should be prepared to be guided by the ancient maxim, “Live and
let live.”
It is this disagreement between them that is
responsible for the sad plight in which Korea finds herself today. On the 15th
of August it was announced that the Korean Republic was born. The Korean flag
was hoisted in Seoul, her capital, in the presence of the American General
MacArthur; the Allied Supreme Commander in Japan, and of Dr. Rufino Luna,
Chairman, of the United Nations Temporary Commission in Korea. But there was
not much jubilation on the occasion. For the new republic extended only over a
part of Korea–the part that was under American occupation. The northern part
continues to be in the Soviet occupation and there is no prospect of the two
coming together under one national government, although when the country was
liberated from the yoke of Japan in 1945 the two great powers proclaimed that
it was their intention to establish a single free and democratic government for
the whole country. The conferences held for this purpose brought no agreement
between the two powers. Soviet Russia introduced communistic institutions into
her zone and boycotted the national elections which were held in May last under
the auspices of a commission appointed by the U.N.O. The National Assembly
which came into existence as a result of these elections chose the veteran
Syngman Rhee as its President and it is his government that now rules over
southern Korea inhabited by nearly twenty million people. Soviet Russia has not
only not recognised his government but has arranged for new elections in her
Communist zone and had also called on the people in the south to participate in
them. These will undoubtedly crea1e a new national assembly of a Communist
character for the ten t\million Koreans in the northern part. Force alone will
decide ultimately whether Korea is to remain partitioned or become united, and
if so whether under a communistic or a democratic regime. Rivalries between the
powers and their ideologies are at the bottom of the Korean tragedy.
The ideological conflict which began more than a
decade ago between the Communists and the Koumintang in China, and which
assumed the form of a terrible civil war in recent years, is becoming more and
more intense. The Communists have been able to take advantage of the
inefficiency, the corruption, and the unpopularity of the government of Chiang
Kai Shek and have brought more territory under their control. The counter
attacks launched by the national government in August have not been completely
successful and reports indicate that the dissidents from Chiang’s party have
entered into negotiations with the Communists and are taking steps to form a
coalition government. A recent review of the war published by the Ministry of National
Defence said that 217, 552 officers and men were killed, wounded, or captured
during the first six months of the year and 89 districts had been lost to the
Communists. It is no wonder that under circumstances like these Chiang’s
Government is losing much of its original strength and vitality in spite of the
fact that the United States is still extending some aid to him. The only
relieving feature in the situation is the currency reform undertaken a few days
ago and the efforts made to raise additional taxes and balance the budget.
These however are belated measures and are not drastic enough to give vigour to
Chiang’s Government. Recognition of Communist Government in certain areas of
China and the consolidation of his power, in the remaining areas are the only
means by which he can strengthen himself. Unless this is done immediately the
future of China will become much darker than what it is at present.
Reactionary forces have gained ascendancy in
Indonesia also. The U.N. Good Offices Commission has not been able to bring
about any understanding between the Indonesian Republic and the Dutch
authorities. The latter have succeeded through their blockade in undermining
the economic strength of the Republic. And equal success has been obtained by
them in setting up a number of States in Indonesia alongside of the Republic.
There is now a cleavage between these States and the Republic. They claim to
represent as effectively as the Republic, or even more effectively than it
does, the real interests of the Indonesians. Some months ago they met at a
conference in Bandoeng and it is their delegates that are now in Holland
negotiating with the Dutch. This is practically a by-passing of the Republic.
It is this division in the rank of the Indonesians that has emboldened the new
Dutch Cabinet to draft a bill for the administration of Indonesia until the
proposed United States of Indonesia and the Netherlands-Indonesian Union came
into being. Under this bill the reality of power is retained by the Dutch
representative of the Crown, while matters connected with Defence and Foreign
Policy would be entirely in the hands of the Dutch Government. The so-called
Federal Cabinet in which there would be at least five Indonesian members is
given only restricted powers. It remains to be seen whether the non-Republican
Indonesian States of the Bandoeng conference will be satisfied with the grant
of this limited authority. Even if this bill regarding the interim government
is accepted, there will be great difficulties when the Constitution of the
Union is settled. The question as to what extent the United States of Indonesia
will be accepted as a real partner in the proposed Union bristles with
difficulties. The Dutch idea is to retain the Crown at the head of the Union
and to confer upon it real authority and sovereignty. Such an idea, if given
effect to, will reduce the United States of Indonesia to the position of a
subordinate partner.
The growing strength of the Dutch in their fight
with the Republic is due not only to the attitude of the non-republican States
but also to that of the United States and Britain. From the very beginning the
Republican Government realised that in their war with the Dutch they could not
get victory unless they had substantial sympathy and help from these two
States. That was the reason why they had their case brought before the U.N.O.
and placed much confidence all along in the U.N. Good Offices Commission. It is
however now becoming clear that they cannot expect much help or sympathy from
these States. This is the inference that is drawn by several competent
observers from the ‘boycott’ by the representatives of Britain, France,
Holland, and the United States of the reception arranged at Canberra to
celebrate the third anniversary of the founding of the Indonesian Republic in
the third week of August. A similar absence was noticed at the celebrations in
Singapore. Neither Holland nor Britain (which has large investments in
Indonesia) desires to accord to the Indonesians elementary human rights which is
possible only when they discard the idea of the white man’s superior rights and
the colonialism which is its consequence. It is no wonder that, to crush the
Republic finally, the Dutch are now contemplating a second ‘police action’.
Things are not much better in Indo-China. The
authorities of the Vietnam Republic are showing signs of greater activity and
they have inflicted severe losses on the French fighting forces. In spite of
this there is no change in French policy. They are determined to be the ruling
power in Indo-China. This is the sum and substance of the statement made in the
National Assembly by the Premier Andre Marie on August 19, that his government
would give its entire and solemn adherence to the agreement signed in June by
the French High Commissioner of Indo-China with the ex-emperor Bao-Dai. This
agreement provides for the ‘independence’ of the Indo-Chinese States in the
French Union. It is very difficult to understand what ‘independence’ really
means when it is coupled with compulsory association with France. It was the
British who made the world familiar with independence of this type when they
unilaterally declared Egypt independent (subject to certain conditions) after
the first world war. And it is on this basis that the Dutch in Indonesia and
the French in Indo-China are prepared to grant independence to their colonies.
The Vietnamese are therefore determined to continue hostilities.
The situation in Malaya continued to be serious
throughout the whole of August. In his broadcast of August 3, Mr. Malcolm
Macdonald, the United Kingdom Commissioner for South-East Asia, pointed out how
the Communist terrorists expected to establish on that day in the Malay
Peninsula and Singapore island a Soviet Republic and made large-scale
preparations for the purpose. Their efforts however were frustrated by the
efforts–belated though they were–of the British authorities. But the danger has
not been completely overcome. It is now felt that it will take several months
before the Communist rising is finally put down. The authorities have
recognised the seriousness of the situation and this accounts for their rushing
into Malaya some of the best trained regiments from Britain. Australia and the
United States are sending their arms into it. Ex-Palestine policemen,
well-trained to cope with terrorists and guerillas, have been brought in large
numbers. Some of the terrorist strongholds have been taken. The war however is
continuing.
Here again, what has now come to be realised is
that in the Past the British did very little to gain the sympathy of the public
or further their desire for self-expression and self-government. They pursued a
policy of divide and rule and created dissensions between the Malays, the
Chinese, and the Indians. As in the days of the Japanese invasion, they are
getting little cooperation from the people of Malaya in dealing with the
terrorists. It is now that they are beginning to see that unless they pursue a
different kind of colonial policy and help in the development of the different
sections of the people, and especially of the working classes who are being
exploited by the British owners of rubber estates and tin mines, they will have
to face rebellion in some form or other. Settled conditions cannot be
established merely by referring to the Communist bogey, though Communist
ideology is making much progress in all countries of South Asia.
No country, however, in this part of the continent
has become a victim to Communist trouble so much as Burma. This new Republic is
now passing through the most critical phase in its existence. A Communist party
has existed in Burma for a number of years. They joined the Anti-Japanese front
in the days of the Japanese occupation and merged themselves in Anti-Fascist
Freedom League when the British power was re-established in 1945. But between
them and the other sections of the League there were acute differences as to
the kind of economic and social order that should be established in the re-born
Burma. They also accused the other sections of being pro-British. Even after
the establishment of the independent Burmese Republic these differences
continued, and with the help of the arms they got in the days of the Japanese
occupation and by appealing to the peasants who were in the grip of the
‘Chettys’ of India, they were able to organise themselves into a strong force.
To overcome their opposition the Prime Minister of Burma announced some months
ago that his policy was in no way different from that of the Communists–an
announcement which caused excitement among the British–but this did not appeal
to the Communists. Subsequently two changes took place. One was the secession
from the Anti-Fascist Freedom League–on whose support the Government rests–of a
section which sympathised with the Communists and which wanted to have direct
dealings with them. The other was the desertion of a number of army regiments.
As a consequence of this the Communist rebellion assumed serious proportions,
and there is now a regular civil war going on in Burma with many cities like Prome
and many areas under Communist control. It was with great difficulty that
Government has been able to save Rangoon from falling into their hands. Martial
Law has been proclaimed over the whole country and it is quite possible that
government may pass into the hands of a military council. From what has taken
place in China, and from what is taking place in Burma, we in India have a
great deal to learn. It is a warning against complacency. It shows how narrow
is the line that separates order from disorder in the tense and revolutionary
atmosphere by which most countries are now surrounded.
The Islamic world Is in a disturbed condition.
Pakistan is confronted with trouble in the North-West Frontier, and in quelling
the disorders there crowds had to be fired upon, resulting in the loss of
several lives. The refugee problem has also assumed serious proportions and a
state of emergency has been proclaimed with the Governor-General practically
assuming powers of a dictatorial character. Preparations for a large scale war
against India in Kashmir are going on.
The Arab League has not yet come to terms with the
State of Israel and it has rejected the invitation of the Jewish Government to
a conference for settling the Palestine issue, as the acceptance of such an
invitation would mean the recognition of the Jewish State. The League however
forgets that, whether it directly recognises it or not, the Jewish State is an
established fact and that it can do very little to destroy it. It is now
thinking of revising its policy and converting itself into a regional
organisation of Arab States, more closely linked politically and militarily,
with a view to press more successfully its views on the General Assembly of the
United Nations and carry on war more effectively with the Jews, in case
military action comes to be resumed. But it is doubtful whether there will be
real cooperation among all the Arab States. The forces which have kept them
apart in the past are still active. Any resumption of hostilities in the face
of the threat of the Security Council that it will enforce sanctions seems to
be a remote contingency, and without the use of force the State of Israel
cannot be destroyed, though it is doubtful if this aim can be achieved even
with the use of force. Meanwhile the Jews have prepared a four-year plan for
their State, providing for large scale immigration and industrialisation. Their
application for membership in the U.N.O. is being supported by the United
States, and all proposals for future settlement by the mediator Count
Bernadotte start on the assumption that the Jewish State is a settled fact. The
Arabs may be said to be fighting a losing cause so far as Palestine is
concerned.
August has seen the success of the Governmental
forces in Greece against the Communist guerillas. The rebels have been driven
out of many of their strongholds. Although there is a possibility of the
remnants of their forces reorganising themselves in Albania–which has always
been helping them, in the same way in which Pakistan has been helping the
Kashmir raiders–there is now some hope that before long the Communist trouble
in the country would come to an end and the national government backed by the
United States would become stabilised. The overthrow of the Greek Communists is
a triumph for the Americans in their indirect war against Soviet Russia.
Another country which has not been able to find
internal peace even three years after the Great War is France. The tenth
ministry that was formed after the inauguration of the Fourth Republic has
submitted its resignation after remaining in office only for about five weeks.
The policy of the new Finance Minister Reynaud has not found much support in
the National Assembly or in the Cabinet, although perhaps it is about the only
policy that can restore some kind of economic equilibrium. That France is
living beyond her means, that unless production is increased she would become a
decrepit and bankrupt nation by 1952 when Marshall Aid would come to an end,
that there should be a considerable reduction in expenditure on the army and
public services, that efforts should be made primarily to improve agriculture
and give better prices to agricultural products, and that there should be a
limit to the higher wages demanded by the workers,–these are some of the
features of the policy he wanted to pursue. But the idea of limiting wages or
reducing public expenditure is repugnant to many, and his demand for
legislation on financial matters through executive decrees, instead of through
Parliament, has roused much opposition. But there does not seem to be any
alternative. And even though the Cabinet in which he was the Finance Minister
has resigned from office, it is only when measures on the lines indicated by
him are adopted that there is hope for stability. Otherwise the way for the
Fascist dictatorship of De Gaulle, or the dictatorship of the Communist
minority, will be opened.
There are as yet no indications of a better
understanding between Soviet Russia and the Western powers. The conference
which met at Belgrade to draw a revised convention regarding the navigation on
the Danube–an international waterway–revealed once again how there is no common
ground between them. Russia with her six Satellites secured an easy majority
and was therefore able to outvote every proposal made by Britain, France, and
the United States. A new convention has been drawn, but the Western powers have
rightly refused to be a party to it. Here again the settlement is not an agreed
one. It is one-sided in character and the Western powers are sure to take the
earliest opportunity to modify it, as otherwise they would be losing not only
long-standing commercial rights but also millions of capital they invested in
the navigation on the Danube. Moreover two of the important States through
which the Danube flows are not participants in the conference. Germany was not
represented in it and Austria was there only as a mere observer. Its
deliberations and conclusions will therefore not be binding on these riparian
States.
It is in such an atmosphere that the talks are
going on in Moscow on the Berlin crisis. There is actually a four-power
conference there, but it is meeting with the same difficulties as were found in
the four Foreign Ministers’ conferences in 1946-47. Everyone hopes that the
participation of Stalin himself in these talks will result in the Berlin crisis
being resolved and the possibility of a third world war being averted. Events
alone will show whether it will only be a hope or become a realised fact.