International Affairs: A Monthly Survey

BY Prof. M. VENKATARANGAIYA, M.A.

This month has seen a further deterioration in the condition of China–a deterioration which has been overtaking her for the last two years. The Communist war against the national government of Chiang Kai Shek has now entered on a new phase. The nationalist forces have been defeated in a number of places in Manchuria; several cities of strategic importance have been lost. It appears as if the whole key-area of Manchuria will come completely under the control of the Communists and that this will be followed by their drive into the equally important area of the north-east. All along there has also been a further worsening of the financial and economic situation in the country. There is so much of similarity between China and India in respect of size, the numbers of population, the enthusiasm with which the overthrow of an empire and the establishment of a republican form of government were greeted by the masses of people, and the vast scope which a national government has for the work of reconstruction. And the history of China since the establishment of the Republic in 1912 has much to teach the people of India.

The danger that threatens the Government of Chiang is of a most acute character. Manchuria which is now in the hands of the Communists occupies a key-position from a political, strategic and economic point of view and the complete occupation of the area–with the exception of Mukden the capital–by the Communists has weakened the stability and strength of Chiang’s Government to an extraordinary degree. Manchuria is contiguous to Soviet Asia and to Mongolia and northern Korea which are practically under Soviet control. The region is also rich in economic resources. The north-east portion which is its heart has a soil and climate favourable to grain growing. It is now a big producer and exporter of surplus foods, especially of soya beans. Its soil is not exhausted and it has greater chances of rapid progress than the older parts of China. It has rich minerals like coal, iron, dolomite, magnesite, gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, and tungsten, and all the principal minerals essential to a sound development of modern heavy industries are found in great plenty. Cement materials and very many other non-metallics are also available in large quantities. The Japanese who were in occupation of the country for a number of years have started some important industries. It is these economic advantages–actual as well as potential–that give the significance to the Communist advance over the whole region. With this vast stretch of territory, inhabited by nearly forty millions of people, the Communists are now in a position to steadily undermine the power of Chiang in other parts of northern and north-eastern China. Their capacity to do this is all the greater in view of recent developments in Korea.

In the course of last month the northern part of Korea, which has been under Russian occupation for the last two years, has been constituted into a ‘Democratic People’s Republic’ dominated by the Communist party. An army of nearly two hundred thousand Koreans has already been trained and equipped by the Russians, and sections of the army are actively cooperating with the Communists of Manchuria. It is true that the United States strongly protested against the formation of such a republic in one part of the country, as being contrary to the pledge which the Allies gave to Korea at the time of her liberation from the Japanese yoke in 1945a pledge whose aim was to create a single democratic State over the whole of Korea after a preliminary five-year period of trusteeship. But owing to acute differences of opinion between the Soviet Government and the United States, all efforts at bringing about a single State of Korea ceased to be of any avail. The Russians have therefore proceeded in their own way. With a communistic Korean Republic and with Communist control over Manchuria, they have been able considerably to consolidate their strength in the Far East-which is one of their effective replies to the manoeuvres of the United States, Britain and France in Western Europe and the Middle East.

Of even greater significance in the worsening of the situation of Chiang and his national government is the incompetence, the corruption and the jobbery which have come to characterise it and which has today made it so unpopular that there are many sections among the people–not only among the masses but also among businessmen–who are prepared to extend a hearty welcome to the Communists. Very little has been done by the national government to improve the lot of the common man. Though there has been for years a talk about land reform, nothing was done to put an end to the vested interests of the bigger landlords. In the name of nationalisation several government monopolies have been established, but they are being run on the most inefficient lines by bureaucrats whose main aim is to amass large fortunes at the expense of the public. Private business has been ruined without however any corresponding benefit to the people as a whole. An unnecessarily large army, ill-equipped, ill-fed and ill-clothed, is being maintained, although experts especially from America have been advising the Government to reduce its numbers and to improve its quality. Transport–river as well as rail–has been ruined. The enlisting of able-bodied perrsons in the army has created a scarcity of labour in agriculture and in industries. Production has fallen. Inflation became inevitable and there has been no limit to the rise in prices and to fluctuations in foreign exchange.

Government is now run by cliques and all popular support has been lost. Starvation is facing the millions of people in the land.

Is there a way out for Chiang? Though it is too late there is still a way out, if he is prepared to come to terms with the Communists, recognise their rule in certain areas where they are already in power, consolidate his position in the rest of the country, make his government broadbased, purge it of vested interests, purify it and carry out the needed agrarian reforms. The time is long past for Chiang to rule the country by merely appealing to the sense of patriotism among the people and to his past services. People are demanding from him a higher order of constructive statesmanship, and everything depends upon his realising this and starting work in this direction, not in some remote future after the Civil War with the Communists comes to an end, but immediately. The Government of the United States is prepared to aid him if it is satisfied that any aid extended to him will be utilised on real national needs and not for enriching the members of the political cliques.

The attention of the world has also been focussed on the situation in Palestine in the course of the last one month. The reason for this is the difficulty which now confronts the Security Council in the matter of enforcing the scheme of partition of the country recommended in November last by the General Assembly of the United Nations.

The parties to the issues in Palestine are multifarious. They are the Jews, the Arabs of Palestine, the Arab States of the Middle East who are members of the Arab League, the Great Powers–Britain, the United States and Russia–with their own interests, and finally the United Nations Organisation. Experience has shown that there is no possibility of reconciling the conflicting interests and view-points of these parties, unless there is a large amount of a spirit of reasonable compromise among all of them. As a matter of fact, however, it is neither reason nor a spirit of compromise that is to be found. Selfish interests and intense emotion are the only factors that are to be seen. The Jews are determined to have a national State of their own in at least a part of Palestine. This was what was promised to them by the British and their Allies in the days of the first world war, when they were in need of the financial help of Jewish millionaries in the United States and several countries of Europe. This was also what the Jewish nation had been looking for, for the last two thousand years. And their desire to have such a national State became all the more intense when, in consequence of the Nazi massacres, five million Jews lost their lives in Europe and another million had to roam about homeless in refugee camps during the last five or six years. They want a national State so that the Jews who wish to leave Europe and find a peaceful place of settlement might migrate to Palestine. It may be noted in this connection that even when free immigration is permitted, it is only about 750,000 that are expected to settle in the Jewish State of Palestine in the course of the next ten years, and that this would increase the Jewish population of the State to about a million and half. It is such a State that the Jews want to create for themselves–a State so small in size and in numbers that it can never be a source of danger to the Arabs in the Arab State of Palestine, who are much larger in numbers and whose birth-rate is far higher than that of the Jews. The Arabs are determined on preventing the establishment of even such a small Jewish State, purely on sentimental grounds. It is their desire to have no partition of the country. They want to have one government for the whole country, with the Jews occupying the position of a permanent minority and without permission being accorded to the European Jews–small as they are in numbers–to immigrate. And in preventing such a partition they have the support of the Governments of the Arab States of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Trans-jordan, the Lebanon and Syria which have some years ago constituted themselves into an Arab League under British inspiration. These governments have proclaimed that they will send their forces into Palestine to fight against the partition and the establishment of a Jewish State. They have already done so and some of these armies are actually engaged in fighting the Jews who, in their turn, have their own armed forces. For the last three months Palestine has been witnessing a civil war between the Jews and the Arabs, in spite of the fact that the British are still the legal rulers of the land having a responsibility for maintaining peace and order. But the British are not prepared to discharge their responsibility. They have been really sabotaging the decision of the United Nations in favour of partition. They have adopted an anti-Jewish policy and a distinctly pro-Arab one and have done nothing to prevent the Arabs from raising private armies or bringing armies from outside. All this arises out of the fact that, come what may, they are determined to continue to exercise power and influence in Palestine, and this they will not be able to do unless they have the active co-operation of the Arabs not only of Palestine but of all the Arab countries in the Middle East. Though these countries today do not constitute one State, they are all members of the Arab League and they are at one in their opposition to the Jews; and it will be dangerous for the British to ignore this and adopt a friendly attitude towards the Jews, however equitable and fair that attitude might be on purely humanitarian grounds. The British are not interested in the Jews or the Arabs. They are interested first in the oil of the Middle East which is the most important source of supply for them, and in the exploitation of which they have invested large amounts of capital. In this age of petrol Britain would be ruined economically and politically if she were deprived of access to this source of supply. They are interested next in having air-fields in the Middle East of which Palestine is a part, so that they might have no difficulty in maintaining their communications with their Colonies and Dominions in Southern and Eastern Asia and with Australia and New-zealand. To be deprived of these air-fields is to be deprived of whatever Empire they have. And lastly, they have their other commercial interests in the Arab world. These three interests cannot be secured unless the Arabs are friendly to them; and Arab friendship cannot be secured if the British are to favour the partition of Palestine and the creation of a Jewish State there. The ending of the mandate over Palestine and the withdrawal of the British forces from that area do not mean the ending of British influence and power. These they are not prepared to give up under any circumstances. This also explains why the Jews regard the British today as their greatest enemies. The interests of the United States and of the Soviet are more or less of the same character as those of the British. They too want oil. They too are anxious to establish airbases and commercial connections with the countries here. And in the game of power politics they do not want to be left behind. Finally we come to the interests of the United Nations. Of course this organisation has only one interest,–that of maintaining peace in Palestine. It has however recommended the partition of the country and it is now responsible for bringing about partition by peaceful means. It is the difficulty involved in bringing about a peaceful partition that has complicated the whole situation.

The United Nations Organisation has appointed a Commission to put the partition into effect. This Commission demanded that it should be supplied with an adequate military force for the purpose-especially in view of the outbreak of civil war between the Jews and the Arabs. The Security Council has not found it possible to create an International Military Force to help the Commission, and there is therefore a move on the part of the United States to modify the scheme of partition. Russia however wants to stick to the original recommendation that the country should be partitioned. It is quite possible that in this Russia is influenced by the prospect that, in any army which will have to be sent to enforce partition, she will have her regiments and that this will bring her to the Middle East as a military power–a position which she has been coveting for a century and more. But whatever the motives be, there is now a stalemate in the Security Council. If it is not able to enforce partition, the prestige of the U.N.O. will be lost. But enforcing partition will mean a war with the Moslems of the Middle East in which Russia will have an active part. So the Great Powers are faced with a dilemma. Meanwhile the British threaten that whatever might happen they are determined to give up their mandate on May 15th and withdraw all their forces by August 15th. The question however remains whether they will do this if the alternative is anarchy in the Middle East, and disturbance to their oil and strategic interests. They are, it is true, strengthening themselves by their new treaty with Trans-jordan and they have their older treaties with Iraq and Egypt and friendly understanding with Iran. They are also sure that whatever may happen the United States will send adequate forces to maintain order in the Middle East, partly to safeguard her own vast oil interests and partly to prevent the Soviet from extending her influence. The point to note is that the importance of Palestine arises out of its being a part of the Middle East.

The Communistic revolution in Czechoslovakia is another event of world significance. It is one more blow struck at Parliamentary Democracy and one more step in the spread of totalitarianism and Soviet imperialism. It is now clear to the whole world that there is not much difference between the foreign policy pursued by Russia in the days of the autocratic Czars and at present by the Communistic government. Expansion of the area of Russian influence and power is the objective of both. And in this respect there is equally no difference between the foreign policy of a Communist State like Russia and a Capitalist State like the United States. The United States has its Truman doctrine which resulted in her ascendancy over Greece and Turkey, and which will lead through the Marshall Plan to her ascendancy over Italy, France, Britain and the other countries of Western Europe. Russia has her ‘Molotov’ doctrine under which she has established herself as controlling authority over Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Albania, and Poland, and it is the application of this doctrine that has made her supreme, through the successfully planned Communistic revolution of February, over Czechoslovakia.

Czechoslovakia has been known to be a country whose people were really democratic and prepared to work parliamentary forms of government. It was also expected that she would act as a bridge between the East and the West. That was also the position which almost all the political parties in the country wanted her to occupy. She was anxious to take part in the European Recovery Programme of Marshall but was prevented by Russia from doing so. It was from that moment that the Russians were determined on preventing any non-Communistic political parties in the country from having a share in government. She slowly worked in this direction during the last four or five months, and the coup which took place in February is its :outcome. The ground for this was well-prepared. The Communist ministers in the Coalition Cabinet, which had been in office for nearly two years, so managed affairs that the Police forces came to be manned mainly by Communists, that the Army officers also belonged to the same party and that the Trade Unions fell under the leadership of the Communists. When the non-Communist ministers in the Cabinet protested against all this, they were accused of being friends of reaction and of plotting against the State. These ministers consequently resigned and Dr. Benes, the President, accepted their resignations, even though there was every reason to think that he was opposed to the course which events were taking. The ministry was reformed and a Cabinet dominated by the Communist party came into office. Action Committees were appointed and all those who were suspected of being opponents of this Communist dictatorship were removed from positions of responsibility in the public services, in Trade Unions, in journalism and in all other important walks of public life. Opponents of the new regime were not allowed to attend the session of the national parliament which was convened to express its confidence in the Communist Cabinet. And in this way a totalitarian, one-party dictatorship was established.

Having thus brought Czechoslovakia under her control, Russia is now coercing Finland–another small State–to enter into a military pact with her. Finland is quite helpless and she will enter into such a pact. It is feared that, after Finland, it would be the turn of Norway to be compelled to enter into a similar pact.

Hitler pursued the same tactics between 1934 and 1939, and Stalin is doing the same. The difference is that Stalin’s path is easier and smoother because inside every country which he wants to bring under his control, there is well-organised Communist party to obey his dictates. It is this that creates a feeling that the Communists in Italy and France might be persuaded to adopt a similar course. This ideological warfare, between Communism on one side and non-Communism on the other, threatens to engulf the whole world and refuses to allow peoples and States not interested in it to pursue their lives in their own way. It is a new form of fanaticism that we see, bringing ruin to the peace loving races on the earth. Concentration of power which is the creed of all totalitarians–Communistic and otherwise–is even more dangerous than the concentration of wealth against which the totalitarians say that they are fighting.

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