BY Prof. VENKATARANGAIYA, M. A.
The decision of the London Conference of the
Council of the “Big Four”, Foreign Ministers to adjourn indefinitely, the
approval by the United States Congress of the Marshall plan for interim aid to
Europe, the suppression of the Communist outbreak in France and a similar
outbreak in Italy, the adoption of a new economic policy by Soviet Russia, the
tension between the Arabs and Jews in Palestine, the growing intensity of Civil
War in China and the attempt by the Dutch in Indonesia to sabotage the efforts
of the three-power Commission to put a stop to the war between the Dutch and
the Republican forces are some of the outstanding events in the International
situation in December. Although these events may appear at the outset as being
independent of each other they are really parts of a connected whole, the chief
characteristic of which is the rivalry between U.S.S.R. and the United States,
the forces of the left and the right, of Communism and anti-Communism as they
are manifesting themselves in different parts of the world. From this
standpoint they have all an underlying unity.
No one expected that the London Conference which
met for settling the preliminaries regarding the conclusion of a Peace Treaty
with Germany would be a success. The circumstances under which the Moscow
Conference of the Big Four broke down in the early part of the year did not in
any way lose their force. On the other hand the subsequent developments
strengthened their character. During the eight months that followed the Moscow
Conference the rivalry between U.S.S.R. and U.S.A. became deeper and more
intense. The suspicions between the two took firmer root and this made the
psychological background of the London Conference unfavourable to any kind of
compromise. Neither party was disposed to make a success of it.
There is no need to go into all the details around
which the controversies at the Conference gathered. Questions of procedure
unnecessarily occupied much of the time of the Ministers. They went on debating
whether they should first discuss problems of the peace treaty or to the
economic and political unity of Germany ignoring that the two sets of problems
were intimately bound together. They also wasted their time in debating whether
discussions regarding the peace terms should be carried on by the Big Four only
or whether the other States which took an active part in the war with Germany
or which formally declared war against it in the last stages should participate
in the discussions and if so to what extent and to what purpose. Russia
insisted on the four powers alone settling all important matters while the
United States insisted with equal strength and in the name of democracy that
all States should be invited to the peace conference. Russia forgot that if her
view was adopted in connection with the German treaty she would have no place
whatever in the conference on the Japanese treaty as she did not actively
participate in the war with Japan and became a formal belligerent only just
before its close. But all these debates proved inconclusive. The final rupture
arose on the question of reparations from Germany claimed by Russia which came
to the enormous figure of 10,000 million dollars. Molotov wanted that the other
powers should accept the payment of this sum from German current output as a
pre-condition for discussing other matters. Evidently the other three–and
especially the Americans and the British–were not prepared to accept it. They
would not do it because they were under the impression that in the form of
capital goods and of current produce, the U.S.S.R. had taken away during the
last two years a large quantity of German wealth and this impression became
strengthened as the U.S.S.R. was not prepared to give correct and exact figures
of the wealth so taken away. Moreover they regarded this claim not merely as
inconsistent with the terms of the Potsdam Agreement of 1945–the agreement
which is the basis of the work of the Council of the Big Four foreign
ministers–but also as a loss to themselves. Payments of large reparations by
the Germans from year to year for a period of forty or fifty years would mean
that very little would be left for paying for imports of essentials into
Germany from foreign countries and that this adverse balance would have to be
met by Britain and America as occupying powers with a responsibility to feed
the German population and provide them with the minimum standard of comfort.
Moreover they also felt that if the German level of industry is to be increased
the advantages from it should not all go to Russia in the shape of reparations
but also to the countries of Western Europe–France, Belgium, Holland etc.–which
suffered as much from the devastations of Hitler as Russia did. They also
pointed out that all these questions were bound up with the recognition of
Germany as a single economic unit enjoying internal free trade based on removal
of barriers to the transport of agricultural produce from the Russian to the
Anglo-American–French zones of occupation. All this meant the fusion of the
four zones of occupation to which the Russians would not agree. They spoke of a
Central Government for Germany without such fusion. The result was no agreement
was possible and the Conference was indefinitely postponed. The cleavage
between the U.S.S.R. and the United States has thus become a settled fact. The
parting of the ways between the two has thus become final. The prospect of the
gulf between the two being bridged has disappeared. And the world is left to
ponder whether all this would not lead to another conflagration enveloping
humanity as a whole with consequences too dire even to reflect.
The tendencies observed in the course which the
discussions were taking in the London Conference as well as their final
breakdown had their effects on events in the United States, France, Italy,
Russia and to some extent in the Middle East. In the United States the first
stage in the battle over the Marshall plan for aiding Europe came to an end
with the Congress giving its approval to the grant of interim aid to West
European countries–and especially to France and Italy–to tide over the
immediate crisis and to discussions on the long-term aids. The ruling section
among the Americans are now determined on rallying to their side as many
European States as possible so as to strengthen their country in any possible
war with Soviet Russia in the near future. The instrument they possess for this
purpose is economic. The United States produces large amounts of wealth of
different kinds–both capital goods and consumers’ goods–and even if she is able
to spare two to three per cent of these goods for the devastated countries of
Europe she would not only be giving them the relief of which they are in urgent
need but also put an end to the growth of Communism which thrives on the hunger
and the economic discomfort of the common man and thus earn the gratitude of
millions of people. The Congress therefore has sanctioned the interim relief
recommended by President Truman although the amount was a little reduced and
although it was made subject to the condition that it should not be utilised in
any country which comes directly or indirectly under Communist (i.e. Soviet)
influence and domination and that those who are entrusted with relief
administration should be completely free from even the slightest kind of
Communistic bias. The Congress has taken the step in right time, as France and
Italy require immediate help to tide over the winter crisis. It goes without
saying that though no political conditions interfering with the national
independence of the relief-receiving States are attached, the extension of
American aid is sure to bring West European countries into the orbit of
America. It is to, facilitate the grant of this aid that President Truman has
proposed measures for putting an end to inflation in his country.
It was not only the breakdown of the London
Conference but also the Communist outbreak in France in December that made the
American Congress hurry up its legislation regarding aid to Europe. In the last
days of November and in the first two weeks of December
France was in the grip of a civil war between the Communists on one side
and Government on the other. The new Cabinet formed by Schuman had to face a
strike of two million workers with the Communist deputies in the National
Assembly calling for a general insurrection. Thousands of civil servants also
struck work. Railways, Post, Telegraph, Telephone, Electricity, Mining–all
these were affected. The Communists succeeded in capturing a few towns. The
Government was placed in a highly critical position. The strike went on for
three weeks. The Assembly enacted, in spite of Communist obstructionist
tactics, legislation conferring special powers on Government to put an end to
sabotage and to deal severely with the disorderly elements. 80,000 reservists
were called. These and other strong measures taken by the Government resulted
in the collapse of the Communist bid for power. The strike was abandoned and
almost all labourers returned to work at the end of three weeks. The victory of
Government was hailed as a victory for “the forces of civilisation against
elements which are the very negation of it”. The credit for this victory is due
not merely to the strength of the moderate and balancing forces in the country
but also to the determination of General De Gaulle and his “People’s Rally” not
to embarrass the Government at the juncture. The Communists have been defeated
at least temporarily; and when it is known that the Communists in every country
in Europe–as in other parts of the world–owe their allegiance to Soviet Russia
and are inspired by the Soviet Government in their polices and programmes–this
defeat is a defeat for the time being of the Soviet Government. In internal
affairs this episode has resulted in a split in the ranks of the French
labourers. The anti-Communists among them have now decided on breaking away
from the Communist dominated General Confederation of Labour and organising
themselves into a separate Trade Union. De Gaulle is demanding fresh elections
for the National Assembly so that he might form a government in due course. In
external affairs this has widened the cleavage with Soviet Russia. The
immediate occasion for this cleavage was the closing by the French Government
of a Soviet repatriation camp in France which had been in existence for some
years and which was suspected now of storing arms and weapons and harbouring
Communists. Some of the Russians attached to the camp were forcibly repatriated
and sent to the Russian zone of Germany. The Soviet Government protested
against all this and broke off the trade talks that were being conducted with
the French for some time.
There was during all this period a strike wave ill
Italy. Actual strikes broke out in the North, the Centre, in Sicily and
Calabria. There was also the threat of a general strike. The Communists
attempted to wreck the Government. With great difficulty the crisis was
overcome. The situation is likely to be eased with the coming in of American
aid. The root of the trouble is still there. War, famine, scarcity of the
essentials of life and general economic distress–these are at the root of the
disorders. The situation is being exploited by the Communists and by Soviet
Russia. Some kind of Democratic Socialism which will solve the economic problem
should be introduced if Communism is to be put down. Here also the battle is
between Communism and Anti-Communism, between Russia and the United States, the
left and the right.
It is but natural that under circumstances like
these the British and the Americans are likely to come closer together in many
matters of foreign policy and that France is also likely to join them. There is
a prospect of their three zones in Germany becoming fused. Already after the
London Conference the British and the Americans have come to an agreement on
the sharing of the occupation costs, the larger proportion falling on the
United States. It looks now quite probable that Germany will be divided into
two political regions–the East becoming the satellite of Russia, and the West
of the United States, each developing the economic and the military resources
in its region to serve as a weapon of either defence or attack in any future
war.
The reaction of Russia to the breakdown of the
London Conference is also noteworthy. She is now anxious to show to the West
European countries that she too has economic resources especially in the form
of food, raw materials, timber etc. with which she can give them relief not in
any way inferior to that granted by the United States. It is to impress this on
the rest of the world that she recently devalued her currency, lowered the
prices of articles of food and abolished all rationing in regard to them. The
Russian people of course welcomed this change and it remains to be seen how
this will react on the rest of Europe. Meanwhile the consolidation of her
satellite States in Eastern and South Eastern Europe is going on. Marshal Tito
of Yugoslavia who had already entered into an alliance with Bulgaria has now
taken further steps to enter into similar alliance with Rumania and Hungary.
The Soviet-Slav bloc in Europe is getting consolidated and the movements on the
political chess board are taking a definite course and form.
A certain amount of uncertainty has crept into the
situation in Palestine. The partition of the country recommended by the General
Assembly was welcomed by the Jews as it assured to them a sovereign State of
their own with prospects of Jewish immigration into it up to its economic
capacity. And it was just for these two advantages that they had been agitating
all along. For the very same reasons the Arabs had been opposing it. The three
weeks following the resolution of the U.N.O. saw the outbreak of violence in
Palestine leading to loss of life on both sides, the burning of property and
looting. More serious than this is the decision on the part of the Arab States
which are members of the British inspired Arab League–Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
Iraq, Transjordan, Syria, Lebanon–to unite together with all their military and
financial resources to resist partition. It is not known how strong these
military resources are for purposes of fighting. For equipment they have to
depend on Britain and the United States. There is however one part of the
army–the Arab Legion and the Transjordan Frontier Force under the command of
the British brigadier Glubb which is well equipped and which has forty Britons
among its officers. It has been well trained for fighting and it numbers about
30,000. It is the opinion of experts that in any war between the Jews and the
Arabs the deciding factor will be this legion and that if it is disarmed the
campaign would mean nothing. All this amounts to saying that everything depends
on the attitude of the British. That they are pro-Arab has been shown by the
course of events in recent times. Many veterans in the British army have also
volunteered to serve on the Arab side. It is this that complicates the
situation in Palestine just as the pro-Pakistan sympathy of the British has
complicated the situation in India and in Kashmir.
At the same time there is a realisation both by the
British and the Arabs–and perhaps by the United States also–that the
enforcement of the U.N.O. resolution would give an opportunity to Russia to
send her forces into Palestine, the one thing which none of these wants. It is
this fear perhaps that explains why the Arab League is thinking of a compromise
plan and of referring to the Security Council the whole issue. Meanwhile the
United States is strengthening her position in the Middle East. She has
concluded a sort of military alliance with Iran and this assures to her a
dominant place in that country to the exclusion of the Soviet Russia. The
growing activity of the Communistic guerillas in Greece and the setting up of a
provisional Government by them is the reply of Russia to American moves in
Iran. The duel that was fought at the London Conference is being continued in
other parts of the world with greater intensity.
It is in this light that we should consider the
significance of the new turn in the course of the Civil War in China. The
Communists are increasingly triumphant in Manchuria and unless some miracle
happens they may even capture Mukden, the capital. The position of Chiang
Kai-Shaek and his National Government is becoming more precarious. He does not
command the sympathy of the masses. Inflation, high prices, scarcity of
essentials, disproportionate military expenditure, bribery and corruption among
officials–these have become the characteristics of his regime. American help
has thus become more necessary than at any other time if he is to be saved from
the predicament in which he finds himself today. And Americans have decided to
help him. In the interim relief-aid sanctioned by the Congress a certain amount
has been set apart for China. More help in the shape of ships and naval
equipment is also promised as the United States is anxious to prevent the
coastal areas from falling into pro-Soviet Communist hands. The danger in all
this is the possibility of the Americans forgetting that the Communist menace
cannot be put down merely by military measures and that the hope of peace and
order in China rests on the national Government abandoning its fascist policies
and inaugurating measures which will secure to the peasants and workmen a
minimum standard of decent life. Herein lies the essential difference between
Soviet Russia and the United States. The former always appeals in the name of
the common man and though her policy may seem ruthless to those who pin their
faith in the evolutionary development of society, it has succeeded in winning
the sympathy of the masses in many countries. The Americans talk of democracy
but in actual practice they identify themselves with the ruling classes in the
countries coming within their sphere of influence. It is in this light that the
situation in China has to be viewed.
Events in Indonesia are not so directly connected
with Soviet-America rivalry as those in other parts of the world surveyed
above. But the connection is not entirely absent. It was the Security Council
that appointed a three-power commission to enforce the cease-fire order on the
Dutch who were found to have violated it. But the commission is proceeding
quite slowly and leisurely in its work. All along, the Dutch have not only been
carrying on their military operations against the Republic but have been
undermining its political strength and integrity by a policy of
“Pakistanisation” in Indonesia. It set up a provisional government to rule West
Java and it is trying to disrupt the Republic in a variety of other ways.
Recently it applied to the United States Government for a loan which will
certainly be used for strengthening her military forces. American and British
sympathies are with the Dutch and the grant of the loan applied for will mean
that the Americans are anxious to have the Dutch on their side in any future
world struggle.
As usual the great powers–the U.S.S.R. and the
United States–continue to pursue their game of power politics and are making it
more and more difficult for the common man to have a life of peace, security
and reasonable comfort. This is the significance of the events that happened in
December.