THE POLITICAL SCENE

 

MAMIDIPUDI PATTABHIRAM

 

            KASHMIR AND ELECTIONS to the State Assemblies of Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram have dominated the political scene in the country in the quarter under review. It was indeed a very difficult situation that had arisen in Kashmir with large numbers of militants and some civil­ians holed up in the famous Hazratbal shrine in Srinagar. The militants re­fused to come out and there was a crisis for more than a month before it was resolved without violence and much loss of face for the administra­tion. A crisis of the kind that had arisen did require great patience and tact for resolving it and it must be said to the credit of the Government that it exhibited both the requirements in an abundant measure. It was a big di­lemma for the Government since any hasty action would have damaged the shrine and created havoc. The security forces laid siege and ensured that no one really escaped. The idea was to starve the persons inside so that some day they would all come out on their own. After the Blue Star Operation in Amritsar when the Golden Temple was damaged due to the entry of the Army to arrest the extremists who had taken refuge inside and the subsequent rise of militancy in Punjab by the Sikhs as a retaliatory measure, the Government thought that a similar Army action might become counter productive in Kashmir.

 

            Already international pressure was being brought on India to come to terms with Pakistan ignoring the Shimla Agreement which laid down that any dispute should be settled bi­laterally. The Government was, therefore, cautious and there could be no valid criticism of the decision to cut off electricity and water supplies, in an effort to tire the militants out and break their will. Whether this was enough for the purpose on hand is a debatable point but what one could say with authority is that the policy of wait and see had paid off at least in this case. Yet fanaticism and the urge for martyrdom are powerful emotions, with which the world has not dealt with conspicuous success so far. The Government is busy with the elections in the Hindi heartland and therefore, it had become somewhat difficult to give undivided attention to Kashmir but all the same the matter was dealt with great dexterity and seriousness.

 

            The militants who included some Pakistani nationals were not willing to come out unless they were set free without preconditions. This was in­deed an impossible demand and no Government which is responsible to the people will be prepared to accept such terms. The militants were also in possession of arms and ammunition and any hasty action by the Govern­ment as already quoted might even lead to destruction of the shrine be­sides causing danger to the lives of innocent persons held hostage by them. Of course, the seige was some­what diluted with the directions of the High Court and the Supreme Court to permit water, food and medical assis­tance to enter the precincts of the shrine. However after a great deal of negotiations in which some militant organisations of the State too took part, the militants finally came out unconditionally. There has been some screening later and the civilians were let out while the militants are still being questioned. There was a sigh of relief all over the country that the epi­sode did not lead to a conflagration. Hindu Muslim relations did not get worse as was expected and there have been no communal incidents in the country. The credit for this must go to the Prime Minister who obviously gave a free hand to the Governor, General K.V. Krishna Rao who was not pre­pared for any compromise on the matter.

 

            Perhaps the administration would have opted for direct action if the militants did not yield but this is now in the realm of speculation. Those who were hoping that India would be put in a tight corner must have felt disappointed. It is in this context the bigger question is raised whether the Army should have been used for this operation as had been done. It has been said that a Government seeks the Army’s assistance only when it is be­yond the capabilities of the civil au­thorities to cope with national calami­ties or civil unrest. When the Army is called in it should be given a clear charter of what to do, not how to do it. That, as a former Army General had put it, would be back seat driving and the shortest route to disaster. Kashmir is under President’s rule and the administration comes under the Gov­ernor. When the rot set in at Hazratbal the civil authorities sought the help of the Army in evicting the armed mili­tants from the shrine. But then the Army was not used for the purpose and they were just waiting for orders. What then was the Army’s precise role in Hazratbal? As events finally tuned out the Army was only a standby with­out any definitive function. Therefore a point of view is put forth that the Army did not have a role to play and the armed police or the paramilitary forces should have sufficed. While it could be said that it is construed by some as a gross misuse of the Army the fact is that the Government did not want to take chances. The situation had become extremely complex and the Gov­ernment must have thought that even the National Security Guards, a force specially created and trained for such purposes would not be adequate.

 

            Now that the sordid chapter is over the Government must think of measures to restore popular rule in the State. This is not going to be easy either.

 

            There are no recognisable politi­cal parties in Jammu and Kashmir and, therefore, the question is how to revive the political process. The Centre should better bury hopes of instant breakthroughs and concentrate on improving the functioning of the secu­rity forces, restoring the rule of law and making a sustained effort to woo the Kashmir’s with a generous dose of autonomy that would make the trauma of separating from India un­necessary. Not that efforts to begin the political process should be kept in abeyance. Of course, there is no ques­tion of India starting any negotiation with Pakistan on Kashmir since that would be a significant propaganda victory for the latter and is bound to be used for demanding unacceptable compromises. It is unfortunate that militant groups have graduated from amateur hit and run bands to well organised daring guerrilla groups bris­tling with arms and uptodate knowl­edge of explosives. The complicity of Pakistan is very clear and Pakistani training and the induction of veteran mercenaries in the State have also transformed the character of the insurgency. There are vast tracks in the State in the rural areas with a thriving parallel administration and armed bands have been spilled into the Jammu region also. All in all a very depressing picture which will have to be handled with great care and cau­tion. How exactly the Government is going to tackle the problem is not clear and there is still no evidence of a Kashmir policy. Ministers visiting Kashmir for a few hours under heavy security is not going to make much impact. A mass contact programme will have to be initiated and more locals should get into key positions in the State administration which alone gives a sense of participation.

 

            By the time this number of Triveni is out the election results in the five States going to the polls would have been known. The more important aspect is that the democratic exercise has gone on without any serious hinge or problem. Comparatively speaking there has much less violence than was expected and electoral malpractices too have been far fewer than on the previous occasions. There has also been a big participation in voting which shows that the electorate has been very alert. The Chief Election Commissioner has taken the neces­sary precautions to ensure a free and fair poll although he was himself embroiled in an unseemly controversy over the appointment of two more Election Commissioners. Mr. T.N. Se­shan did not take kindly to the insta­llation of the new incumbents mainly because he knew they were there to clip his wings. A presidential ordi­nance appointing the Commissioners stipulated that all decisions of the Commission should be unanimous as far as possible but in case of differences the majority view will prevailed. Which in effect means that the two Commissioners could upset if they want, all the decisions of the Chief Election Commissioner. Mr. Seshan knew this would hamper his style of functioning and he will not have the same authority to conduct the election proceedings as he was having earlier. After what the Commissioners did in the first few days which was not to his liking he challenged the very Ordi­nance and its provisions in the Su­preme Court.

 

            In the meantime, the Commis­sioners were contending that they had an equal status as that of the Chief Election Commissioner who was only first among them. A plain reading of the Constitution, however, would have revealed that the Chief Commissioner is the chairman when more Commis­sioners are appointed. It is also provided that they could be removed on the recommendation of the Chief Elec­tion Commissioner and this provision could by no stretch of imagination be altered by a mere Ordinance. However, the Supreme Court directed that it was the Chief Election Commissioner’s view, that would prevail and there was no question of taking decisions by majority. Thus Mr. Seshan’s stand was vindicated although the Court’s verdict did upset the two Commissioners who have now second thoughts on their continuance in office. The Court, however, is expected to give its final ruling later but there is little doubt that the primacy of the Chief Election Commissioner would not be jeopardised. That is as it should be. Although Mr. Seshan was acting on occasions in an arbitrary manner he had done a great deal to maintain the independence of the Commission and this is a significant gain to the demo­cratic polity.

 

            For instance, it was his indict­ment of the Governor of Himachal Pradesh who was actually camping in Madhya Pradesh to canvas for his son who was a Congress (I) candidate for the State Assembly that led to his (Governor’s) resignation. A constitu­tional functionary like a Governor cannot act like a politician and he must keep himself above purely parti­san politics. And his failure to do so has cost him his job although it should be said to his credit that he vacated his office the moment the mistake was pointed out. The results of the elections will be eagerly awaited as the entire Hindi heartland is in­volved in the process. If the Congress (I) which is the ruling party at the Centre fails to make the grade espe­cially in Uttar Pradesh, its prestige will come down and the people will attrib­ute this to its failure to protect the Babri Masjid. If the BJP wins in atleast three States, there will be a clamour for a midterm Lok Sabha poll although the chances of the demand being con­ceded are remote.

 

            Yet another development worth noting is the Supreme Court verdict clearing the Maharashtra Chief Minis­ter, Mr. Sharad Pawar, of the charge of corrupt practices during the 1991 Lok Sabha elections and thus it removed the political shadow cast on him by an earlier order of the Bombay High Court. The Aurangabad bench of the High Court held him guilty of charac­ter assassination while campaigning for the Congress (I) candidate, Mr. Gadakh. The High Court set aside the election of Mr. Gadakh for that reason and even declared the rival candidate. Mr. Vikhe Patil, elected instead. This was, of course, an extraordinary decision which was reversed by the Su­preme Court. The charge against Mr. Pawar was that he said at public meet­ings that the rival candidate was influencing voters by offering money. The Supreme Court however did not accept, the argument and said that Mr. Pawar’s observations did not really mean to say that the candidate was offering monetary inducements to the voters. The more important aspect of the is­sue is that Mr. Pawar had just as­sumed the post of Chief Minister of Maharashtra after giving up the post of Union Defence Minister at the re­quest of the Prime Minister, Mr. P .V. Narasimha Rao. The charges of cor­ruption against Mr. Pawar related to somebody’s election and not his own. And if only the Supreme Court had upheld the High Court order it would have meant certain curtailment of Mr. Pawar’s political career. Mr. Pawar is even now hoping to return to national politics and if he entails electoral dis­qualification at this crucial time he is bound to go into the oblivion. Mr. Pawar is saved of this ignominy and how exactly he will shape himself in the future is a matter which will be watched with great interest by the discerning observers all over the coun­try.

 

            In spite of the fact that the BJP is making some headway the prepon­derance of the Congress party is still not in doubt. For historical reasons among which the most important is the part played by the party in the freedom movement the Congress has been strong. Of course, a different voting system as for instance propor­tional representation might have very much reduced the strength of the Congress in Parliament and in the Assemblies. But given the nearly illit­erate electorate which cannot follow its intricate workings there is no immediate chance of the first-past-the-post system now existing being changed. The Congress party has seats dis­proportionate to its voting strength and this imbalance can be set right gradually as other political parties grow. Up to a point this has already been corrected because of the emer­gence of strong Opposition parties. And yet the lack of a single unified opposition party is working in favour of the Congress (I). There is no gain­saying that the need of the hour is a strong and stable government at the Centre and in the States whatever party is in power. Although many have said about the so-called decline of Parliament, the presence of influential political parties with strength has re­sulted in increasing sensitivity to the moods and pulse of the people in the House and this is a good sign. One hopes that in the present elections which is a mini-general election con­sidering the very large number of vot­ers involved some party or the other will obtain a majority and thus prevent uncertainty in the conduct of the Government. A hung Assembly will lead the State to nowhere and the country can ill-afford unstable govern­ments any more. The costs of democ­racy are indeed high.

 

 

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