INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: A SURVEY
DR.
R. V. R. CHANDRASEKHARA RAO
The Sixties-A
Decade of Contrasts
The unique feature of the decade
just past is that it defies labelling. We cannot coin
such neat names as the ‘gay nineties’ or the ‘roaring twenties.’ In one sense
we can agree with Alistair Cooke’s characterisation
of the decade as the ‘ghastly sixties.’ Political assassinations in the U. S.,
campus revolts and civil strife almost everywhere, the decline in the political
stability in our own case (whether one regards it as symptomatic of a
transition to maturity or as a descent to doom is a different matter), bloody
civil wars in Nigeria and Vietnam, crude racialism in South Africa and
Rhodesia, brutal suppression of Czechoslovak freedom by Russia–these are
illustrative of the ghastliness. The ghastliness also lies in the
contrasts the decade produced. Man landed on the moon, thus
transforming, as it were, the interplanetary distances from an astronomical
dimension to a mere microscopic measurement, yet the gaps in the economic
levels of the communities within this planet are getting widened at
unprecedented speed. The sixties transformed the advanced industrial societies
into ‘technotronic societies’, while, in contrast, in
the less developed areas even the transition from agro-feudal state to the
industrial phase is proving difficult. The result, in the words of the noted
scholar Zbigniew Brzezinski,
is that within our planet ‘more distinct worlds’ are emerging. In a word, thus,
the sixties seem to be unique in their contrasts.
The Washington-Moscow
Detente
Yet, viewing from the limited
perspective of East-West relations, in particular of those between Washington and Moscow,
one cannot but feel encouraged. It will be remembered that the decade opened with
high expectations of the Summit Talks between Khruschev
and Eisenhower in Paris.
The fact that the previous meeting of these two statesmen at Camp David in 1959
generated a spirit of cordiality only reinforced the optimism about the
proposed Paris
summit in the Spring of 1960. It is comforting that
the decade closed with the Russo-American ‘detente’ assuming almost Impregnable proportions. For, the strategic Arms
Talks, now being held at Helsinki,
indicate that the two super powers have settled down to working out lasting defences for the ‘detente’. Thus, the beginning and the end
of the decade are marked by events spotlighting the genesis and consolidation
of the ‘detente’.
This is not to say that from 1960 to the end of 1969
there has been an unbroken ascent in the ‘cordiality curve’ of East-West
relations. On the Contrary, the decade had witnessed events fraught with
frightening potentialities. Let us recapitulate.
Ironically enough, the Paris summit, which the dawn of the sixties
heralded, proved abortive as a result of the U2J incident, in which an American
plane entering Soviet territory north of the Turkish boundary
was shot down by the Russians. The American plane was admittedly on an espionage
mission. This had not only shattered the proposed Paris Summit, but brought
back the two Powers almost to their former state of hostility. However, the
inauguration of the Kennedy regime restored to a little degree the lost ground
and President Kennedy followed up his professions of friendship in bargaining with
Moscow over the
Austrian Peace Treaty in 1961. And this trend was again rudely interrupted by the
Cuban missile fiasco (1962), which brought Russo-American relations to an all
time low and the world nearest to a nuclear holocaust. Whether Kennedy’s refusal
to permit Russia installing
missiles in Cuba saved Latin
America from a shot-gun marriage with Castro’s Cuba or it merely saved Kennedy’s image
of being a tough guy will be debated for a long time. Apparently, he called Khruschev’s bluff and won a resounding victory in the war
of nerves. Yet , but for Khrushev’s
decision not to run the American blockade, an all out nuclear war would have
resulted. In this sense, it was the Russian leader that showed responsibility
and wisdom at the expense of his own head which rolled
two years later. For, it is well known that his performance in the Cuban
missile crisis was one of the grounds seized upon by his neo-Stalinist opponents
in the Kremlin to oust him from power in the autumn of 1964. The third episode is
the American entry into the Vietnam
tangle. This occurred during Kennedy’s time though it was during Johnson’s time
that Washington’s
involvement escalated into total committal.
Yet, in spite of these events engendering tensions the
search for détente continued, and what is surprising, succeeded. Four major
breakthroughs can be cited: (i) the Austrian Peace Treaty
which avoided the creation of a second German problem to reckon with, (ii) The
Test-Ban Treaty of 1965, (iii) The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty of 1968,
and (iv) The Strategic Arms limitation Talks,
currently in session at Helsinki.
These are only the tangible manifestations of the rapprochement. Many more
intangible indicators can also be cited. The American proposal to withdraw a
sizable part of its troops from Western Europe; the indefatigable efforts by
Washington and Moscow to jointly sponsor acceptable plan on West Asia (in spite
of their conflict of interests); West Germany’s readiness to negotiate with
Russia and Poland–all these and many more, illustrate these intangibles.
Another significant feature of the
decade is that the two super powers have developed a stake in the ‘detente’ to
such a degree that at times they feel their respective ideological allies to be
drags on their search for closer identity. Western Europe’s misgivings about Washington entering into bilateral understanding with Moscow are well known.
Similarly, Eastern European capitals felt equally piqued at Moscow’s disposition to ignore them in dealing
with the West. More than this, there is the special common interest of Moscow and Washington to
contain China.
Thus, in short, the fear of the destructive potential of their nuclear arsenals
and a common concern against China
seem to constitute the real reasons for the thaw in Russo-American relation
rather than the emergence of new liking towards each other.
And this brings us to the most
important development of the decade – the Sino-Soviet schism. The seeds of this
conflict might have been sown sometime before the start of the sixties. But it
is during the past decade, particularly after 1962, that it assumed a
recognizable dimension. Strong convictions about each other’s ideological
departures apart, parochial nationalism, territorial ambitions and personality
rivalries, pure and simple, also weighed in the situation. This ideology and
power got inextricably mixed in the affair. The Sino-Indian War of September
1962 and the Cuban Missile affair of the same period provided the occasion for
the schism to become overt. Khruschev was lukewarm
towards China’s action
against India
and Mao was furious as Khruschev’s pusillanimity over
the Cuban issue. The schism went unabated and not even the Soviet leader’s exit
would turn the tide. In fact, his accusers and successors, Kosygin and
Brezhnev, were so committed against China
that they wanted to see the Indian sub-continent united as a bulwark
against China’s
revanchist potentialities. This explains the Russian mediatory
role at Tashkent
after the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965.
The rise in the American involvement in Vietnam also contributed
to the worsening of Sino-Russian relations. As pointed out
by a student of Chinese affairs in a recent article in the journal, ‘problems of
Communism’, “the U. S. bombing
of North Vietnam, initiated in
February 1965, was a catalytic agent in relations between the Soviet
Union and China.” How to react to the American commitment was the
question faced by the Chinese leadership. The Russians proposed that the American
involvement be met by a bold confrontation. For the follow up action Moscow “requested
the use of two airfields in southwest China, the right to station 500 men on
them, an air Corridor or air transit rights, permission to send 4,000 men in a
body through China, and possibly the use of a port in South
China.
The Maoist section of the Chinese leadership was averse
to interpret the American involvement as warranting a conventional confrontation
and combined to advocate guerilla warfare as the right action. The Soviet stand
is capable of two alternative interpretations. Either Moscow
sincerely advocated a war straight away with the U.
S., in which case the untenability
of regarding the Russians as being inherently more reasonable with the West becomes
patently clear: or Moscow merely wanted to establish
its military presence in China
in the name of Vietnam.
In any case the Russian proposal led to a rift within the Chinese leadership
from which, no doubt, the Russians wanted to profit. To quote from the article cited
above “Acceptance of this proposal would in effect have signified
the ascendancy of the views of Lo, Liu, and Teng over
those of Mao, as elaborated by Lin Piao. The Soviet leaders probab1y did not expect immediate
acceptance, particularly as it was made before they knew that the United States would remain firmly committed to
the war in Vietnam.
Refraining from virtually all public polemics with China,
Moscow settled back to await the outcome of the
debate in Peking, probably hoping that the Soviet offer would embolden Mao’s
opponents and set the stage for a shift of political power in China.” The Russian misgivings of Chinese
international can also be seen in Moscow’s signing the Test Ban Treaty and the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, both of which are designed
to make acquisition of nuclear capability appear irresponsible
in the eyes of world public opinion. The
stage now seems to have passed one of restrained hostility, and an
impending war seems quite possible. The very nearness to the point of no return
in their mutual hostility seemed to have forced them to open negotiations,
which started a couple of months ago after the surprising meeting between
Kosygin and Chou En Lai in Peking. Whether the
seventies will reverse the general trend of the sixties in the Sino-Soviet relations
is still to be seen. The urges for the consolidation of the Russo-American
bonhomie are infinitely stronger than those for the relaxation of the
inter-Communist tensions. In fact, it can be said that the Russians are making
up with the West because of the hostile pressures of their Eastern ideological neighbour. And the Americans are also eager to isolate Peking and then deal with it. Yet,
unless the Russians or the Americans are seriously contemplating war with China (not a probable prospect), it could not be
that the two giants will continue to treat Peking
as a parish. That is why while the Russians are exploring ways to
de-fuse the situation in the East, the Americans, on their own, are also keen
on opening a dialogue with Peking. That
Vice-President Spirto Agnew, of all people, should
praise the Nepalese for maintaining cordial relations with Peking
is very suggestive indeed. The American Vice-President thereby conceded Peking’s
claims to regard Nepal
as coming under its sphere of influence also. The problem now is to reconcile
the urges for a Russo-American detente with those for Sino-Soviet and Sino-American
dialogues. Perhaps, a lasting peace with Moscow
would constitute a more secure foundation for a long term understanding with Peking.
The sixties also saw the process of
a permanent weakening of the bond uniting the Communist world. And this trend
could be regarded as independent of the Sino-Soviet quarrel. This quarrel,
however, led to the bifurcation in the Communist camp. More subtle than this is
the weakening of Moscow’s hold even over those
states that ostensibly remain under Moscow’s
influence. The liberalisation in Czechoslovakia
during 1968, even if eventually crushed with brutal contempt for everything
democratic, points to the nature of forces working within the Communist systems
themselves. One wonders whether the enunciation of the Brezhnev Doctrine of ‘limited
sovereignty’ does not betray an admission that the hitherto accepted modes of
relationships between Moscow
and its ideological cohorts are eroding! The example of Rumania is even
more to the point. While daring to take an independent stand in the Sino-Soviet
dispute, Bucharest
has been pursuing an even more independent foreign policy–sometimes even being
pro-Western as over the Arab-Israeli dispute. And developments did not stop at
that. In addition to the appearance of cracks in the Eastern European monolith,
chinks within individual Communist state systems have also manifested. The
Russian society itself is an example. It is true that there fortunes of freedom
fluctuated from mild permissiveness to near total repression.
The trails of some intellectuals a couple of years ago and the recent expulsion
of the eminent writer Solzhenitsyn from the Soviet Writer Union indicate that
the official policy is to weed out dissent. But here again, it would seem that
certain changes have come to stay. A few illustrations may be given. It is
significant that a youngster, Anatoly Gromyko, the son
of the Russian Foreign Minister, resigned from the diplomatic service and
entered the Institute for the Study of the U. S.
A., in Moscow.
In this capacity, as the leading Russian ‘Americanologist’.
he is playing the role of a Russian ‘dove’ neutralising the army ‘hawks.’ Only recently he published what
is regarded as the most sophisticated Soviet book on American politics, a work
on the Kennedy days entitled, “The 1036 Days of President Kennedy.” That he
could operate still in the ‘intellectual establishment’ is highly suggestive of
the changes in the society. A second instance is the petition signed by 54
members of a group, styled as the Initiative Group for the Defence
of Civil Liberties, and sent to U Thant last May. It
is true that some of these signatories have been imprisoned, and few others dismissed
from their jobs. Yet the event itself is epochal.
India:
The End of Innocence?
The Sixties have been most agonising
for us. Internally, the set-back to our economic development consequent on the
Chinese invasion, the loss of the charismatic leader,
Nehru, and later that of Lal Bahadur Shastri, brought
about a change in our perspectives. The Chinese episode made us conscious of
the blinkers we wore for long. The loss of the two leaders made us think about
getting along with untried leadership, and to learn to live the future with a
less stable political system. The elections of 1967 compelled us to face a reality
totally different from the past. The complacent sentimentality about our
democratic order associated (rightly or wrongly) with the halcyon days of the congress
rule was rudely challenged with the emergence of non-Congress majorities in
many states. And finally, as if the Sixties were predestined to play out their
role of metamorphosing the old political structure to the last minute of the
calendar. Just on the eve of the new decade the Congress itself got split
beyond repair.
Externally even at the very start of
the period our foreign policy received a rude jolt and our military honour lay shattered. The Chinese betrayal of their solemn
pledges to uphold the autonomy of Tibet, their cynical disregard of
our territorial integrity in encroaching upon our territory in Aksai Chin and finally their perfidy in mounting a massive
invasion in September 1962, seemed to take away the raison d’etre for our non-alignment. Even
its architect, Nehru, realised the need for an ‘agonising reappraisal.’ Many more, in fact, thought that
non-alignment, vis-a-vis China, has for long been a function
of our willing suspension of disbelief. Non-alignment, however, still remained
relevant as between Moscow
and the West, for in the early years of the decade the thaw in the East-West
relations had not assumed so recognisable a shape as
to make neutralism of little consequence. As for China, Indian foreign policy came
of age, adolescent enthusiasm being replaced by a realistic awareness of having
to live with the Chinese threat. In pursuance of this, efforts, however feeble,
have been made towards the end of the decade, to project our South East Asian
identity. We have tried to bring ourselves closer to Asia’s economic collossus, Japan.
The Prime Minister visited a good many of the South East Asian countries during
’67-69. Though we are averse to a military pact as an answer to the Chinese menace,
it is significant that we are trying to make friends in the region and talking
about the menace. The British decision to withdraw their
naval presence from the region as also the possible curtailment of the American
commitment in the area, has not lost its impact on us. We are talking
loudly of the need to strengthen naval defences and
our determination to go ahead can be seen, to an extent, in the attention
bestowed in augmenting our naval wing.
We obtained massive doses of aid
during those precarious months mostly from the West. Yet, it is important to
note that all this did not amount to throwing non-alignment overboard. Indeed,
Russian sympathy shown in the shape of refusal to support Peking, vindicated our
policy. And, further, that policy still remained relevant as between Moscow and the West.
Russia’s role as the peace-maker between us and Pakistan–both non-communist
states–revealed not only her closeness to India put also her preparedness to
play the bourgeois role of a peace-maker in a quarrel between two bourgeois powers.
But, again, it is curious, but true, that the Russian support for us as against
Peking logically meant Russian neutrality between us and Pakistan. For, it was the Russian
dislike for Peking that made Moscow refuse to
identify itself with Peking in 1962 and it is precisely this fact that makes Moscow try to Wean Pindi away
from Peking’s influence. This has now placed
us in a tight comer. More and more the Russians have tended to equate us with Pindi in their policy calculations. And we see Pakistan getting the best of both the Western
and Russian worlds; and this for being on the best of terms with Peking!
While the disillusionment with China has been a chastening
experience, maturity does not lie in sulky withdrawal but in being perpetually
vigilant and cautiously conciliatory. It is noteworthy that Peking has been overcautious
not to provoke India
further and the lapse of eight years may bring down the walls of resentment
caused by betrayal and humiliation. Delhi has
stated that it would not hesitate to talk with Peking
provided an honourable settlement is offered. At the
same time Delhi
cannot afford to forget the past and cannot but posit the Chinese threat as a
constant in the formulation of its policies.
To us, 1962 not only brought disillusionment
with China
but a sort of disenchantment with our role as a World leader too. The
Afro-Asian states seemed not to be too impressed with our righteousness and
many of them chose to remain neutral in our dispute with China. Again in
our quarrel with Pakistan
the religious bias of some of these showed up glaringly. Our reaction to these
has not always been firm and wise. Our anxiety to please the Moslem states
(partly a function of our efforts to keep our Moslem minority in good humour) in the face of their open sympathy for
Pindi has been neither honourable
nor profitable. It is to be hoped that a review of our attitudes towards these
will be made soon.
The African Decade
The Sixties have been even more fateful for Africa. In fact the consummation of the African liberation
movement occurred in the early Sixties. It is true that Ghana was the
first African country to attain freedom in the post-war era in
1957. Yet that event proved to be the herald of the events of the early
Sixties. Almost all British West African colonies attained freedom by 1961
(Nigeria, 1960; Sierra Leone, 1961; Cameroun, 1960;
Gambia, 1963). France
under De Gaulle let to French West and Equatorial Africa by 1960. Soon British
East and Central African possessions also emerged free. Even Belgian Congo,
perhaps the most backward of the African areas, did not escape the rising tide
and the Belgium
led to concede freedom at the very start of the decade. It was only left to
unregenerate Portugal to
remain completely impervious to pangs of conscience and sense of shame in
hanging on to her possessions in Mozambique,
Angola
and a few other pockets, using the most ruthless methods in suppressing nationalist
aspirations. Yet another instance of the persistence of the colonial
back-woods-man spirit is the further consolidation of apartheid in South Africa and its unabashed extension to Rhodesia. In
the latter case a handful of white settlers not only refused to share power
with the overwhelmingly large native Africans, but dared to defy the world at
large and British authority in particular in announcing Unilateral Declaration
of Independence in 1965.
The extent of African liberation is
itself staggering. British and French West African colonies alone comprised
over 40 million people and extended over an area of more than two million
square miles. This would give one an idea of the quantitative dimensions of
African liberation. Perhaps, at no other time in world’s history so large a
tract underwent so radical a political transformation in so short a time.
If the decade started with African
independence it also witnessed the tragic problem of these new-born states: the
problem of establishing their national identities. At the very start, the
Congolese civil war, abetted by ungraceful colonial masters (Belgium and
France), revealed the twin dangers to which these states are exposed: dangers
of rear-guard colonialism and African sub-regionalism. We witness the
persistence of the problem even to the end of the decade as can be seen from
the Nigerian tragedy, which came out into the open in 1967. These episodes high-light
the legacy of a continent partitioned by European powers as if it was personal
real property and parcelled into chunks divided by
artificial boundaries. Quite apart from this colonial legacy there is the
problem of tribal loyalties challenging the claims to nationhood of the
existing legal entities. The decade thus witnessed the rise of these politics
with enthusiastic committal to rule of law and democracy, and their
transformation, in most of the cases into single party states. Many of these
have also experienced military take overs.
One interesting development, as far
as international relations are concerned, is that while communist powers,
Russia and China, started with a natural advantage in gaining the confidence of
most; of these new states, the crude overplaying of Chinese diplomacy in some
of the African capitals resulted in the Africans’ getting rather suspicious of
Chinese intentions. This happened in Tanzania,
Uganda, Ghana
and in a few other states too. Of course, in some cases the Russians still
enjoy strong foot-hold. For example, while the overthrow of Nkrumah in Ghana meant a fall from favour
for the Russians, the Nigerian civil war gave Moscow a fine opportunity to acquire a favoured status in Logos.
The decade also saw the futility of
efforts to promote African unity. In the context of the difficulties facing the
emergence of individual national identities pan-Africanism
seemed a good answer. Yet regional and personality factors and basic difference
in the approach to unity (supra-state or a mere promotion of a cultural idea?)
made the search for unity a virtual non-starter. The Organisation
for African Unity created in 1963 could not make even a small beginning in
bringing Nigeria and Biafra to the conference table.
Whether the Seventies will bring to Africa its unrealized hopes of democratic politics,
economic development and unity is to be seen.
Whither
International Aid?
The foregoing survey indicates one thing. The Sixties, on
the whole, saw the danger of a global confrontation recede, though local
wars and aggressions were endemic. Thus, peace, understood as
avoidance of war, has registered only a partial advance. When we turn to
what may be termed the ‘maximal dimension’ of peace, that is, securing positive
conditions conducive to the reduction of intersocietal
tensions, we find again the syndrome of ‘contrariness’ that characterises
the past decade.
In some areas the achievements have
been outstanding. The performance of the United Nations, through its specialised agencies has been purposeful. In fact, it is in
the past decade that the world body’s role in this direction has come to be
increasingly recognised. The award of the Nobel Prize
for Peace to the International Labour Organisation last year is just a reminder
of the silent service done by such organisations, in
spite of the frustrating experience of all this effort being eclipsed by the political
conflicts that get projected to the fore.
This said,
the extremely limited nature of the contribution of international aid in the
economic development of under-developed areas cannot be over-emphasised. Ironically indeed, the U. N. sought to dedicate
the past decade to development and declared 1966, in particular, as the International
Co-operation Year. Yet the record in this regard has been uninspiring. There
has not been even a symbolic attempt in the shape of a simple concerted effort
to boost development to commemmorate the year. In
fact, such has been the toxin that the politics of aid released over the years
that Mr. McNamara, the President of the World Bank, came to perceive a crisis
of vast dimensions. To meet the situation Mr. McNamara constituted a committee,
to which the former Canadian Prime Minister, Lester Pearson, was invited, to be
the chairman. Only a few months ago the Pearson Committee submitted its Report
on International Aid. And what an exposure it made of the murky make-believe of
international economic assistance! The net achievement of the decade in this
field seems to be the Report itself. The trust of all its recommendations “is
to bring most poor countries to a point where, by the end of the century, they
will no longer need aid. Their growth will be self-sustaining. To accomplish
this, the Report insists that their growth rate be raised to an average six per
cent a year, which is a lot. This will require aid donors to give more; the
United States Government, relatively a laggard now; will have to double its
effort. Recipients will have to perform more efficiently, and to be judged on
their performance. Poor countries will have to improve conditions for private
investment. Rich countries will have to let the poor sell them more of their
goods. The multilateral sources and administrators of aid, like the World Bank
and the Aid-India Club, must be strengthened to spare rich countries like the United States,
and the poor countries they help, the harshest of the political frictions
inherent in any face-to-face dealing of patron and client.” Will the affluent
West act on the experience of the decade? This is the big question.
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